DRAM Shortage: AI Is Draining Capacity and Driving Up PC Prices

DRAM memory is not on the verge of a crisis. We’ve been in one for a year now. AI servers are draining production capacity that is then lacking for regular computers and smartphones. I was unable to confirm the claim that supplies will drop by as much as half. However, analysts warn that memory supplies for regular PCs may indeed decline by 2027. What does this mean for prices and purchases?

Why AI “Steals” Memory from Ordinary Devices

Manufacturers are shifting production capacity toward HBM memory, which is integrated alongside AI accelerators. HBM is made from stacked memory chips and, according to available estimates, consumes more than three times as much silicon wafer per usable gigabyte as conventional DRAM. Each wafer intended for HBM is therefore not available for conventional modules.

Analysts estimate that by the end of 2026, HBM will account for approximately 22% of DRAM input wafers among the three largest manufacturers, and by the end of 2027, this figure will rise to about 30%. However, it accounts for a much smaller share of the total number of bits produced—approximately 9% and 13%, respectively. Thus, this small share of production consumes a large portion of capacity.

What’s Verified and What Isn’t

• Verified: Global DRAM supply in 2026 is estimated to grow by only about 16%, which lags behind demand. Contract prices in the fourth quarter are expected to rise by roughly another 20% compared to the previous quarter.
• Analysts’ warning: DRAM shipments for PCs may decline in 2027, as manufacturers prioritize server memory. I have not found an exact figure for the decline in reliable sources.
• Unverified: I have not confirmed the claim of a 30–50% decline in overall shipments. Available estimates point to a steadily growing, yet insufficient, supply.

When can this be improved?

Estimates vary. Some analyses predict that prices will stabilize around mid-2027, while others suggest a more significant easing won’t occur until 2028. New factories are expected to come online no sooner than 2027, and even then, priority will remain with memory for AI and servers. The bad news extends even further. HBM memory itself could become significantly more expensive in 2027, which will increase pressure on the entire supply chain.

How to Approach This When Making a Purchase

No one can guarantee when prices will fall, but estimates suggest that a significant drop is not expected before mid-2027. This suggests several sensible steps:

• If you need a PC or a memory upgrade right now, waiting probably won’t save you much.
• If the purchase isn’t urgent, consider whether a smaller capacity will suffice, and upgrade later.
• Compare prices across multiple retailers and monitor inventory levels. Major PC manufacturers often have their supplies secured through long-term contracts, so retail availability may be more volatile.
• Don’t buy more than you need. Purchases postponed from 2026 could increase demand in the coming years.

What to Take Away From This

This isn’t an unexpected shock, but rather a long-term redistribution of production capacity in favor of artificial intelligence. As demand for AI grows, standard memory will remain more expensive than it was a year ago. The main risk for consumers isn’t a single dramatic price drop, but a slow and prolonged rise in prices.